This page relates to the Academy's report on COVID-19 in winter published July 2020. Explore our new report on COVID-19 in winter published July 2021.
The UK must prepare now for another potential wave of COVID-19 this winter that could be more serious than that seen in spring 2020. The need for health and social care usually peaks in the winter, when the NHS and social care systems typically operate at or close to maximal capacity. Combined with a backlog of non-COVID-19 care, the disruption to the delivery of care caused by the first wave of COVID-19 and the risk of a winter influenza epidemic, a resurgence of COVID-19 this winter poses a serious risk to health.
Our rapid review emphasises that there is a need for urgent action, with a window for preparation from now until the end of the summer. Preparation needs to be based on the best quality scientific advice and must be developed through active engagement with patients, carers, the public and healthcare professionals. There is also a need for excellent co-ordination, collaboration and sharing of information – including data on the spread of disease – at all levels.
Prevention and mitigation strategies must focus on:
- Minimising the transmission and impact of COVID-19 in the community.
- Organising health and social care settings to maximise infection control and ensure that COVID-19 and routine care can take place in parallel.
- Improving public health surveillance for COVID-19, influenza and other winter diseases.
- Minimising influenza transmission and impact.
The actions set out in this report should enable the health and social care system to better cope in the face of new winter pressures resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic, and thereby help to protect the health of the nation and save as many lives as possible.
An Expert Advisory Group, chaired by Professor Stephen Holgate CBE FMedSci, contributed to the development of this report (see ‘Expert Advisory Group’ tab). Their discussions were informed by a Patient and Carer Reference Group, and a series of public, patient and carer workshops led by Ipsos MORI (see ‘Public, patient and carer input’ tab).
The full report, summary and a perspective piece from the Patient and Carer Reference Group are available to download on the right-hand side of this page.
Further information is also available in our associated news article.
An Expert Advisory Group was convened to inform this project, representing a broad range of expertise across public health, epidemiology, surveillance, infectious diseases, health systems, modelling, immunology, virology, vaccines, healthcare delivery, meteorology, mental health, behaviour, among others. Their discussions were informed by a Patient and Carer Reference Group, the co-Chairs of which sat on the Expert Advisory Group. The preparation of the report was also supported by a small group of early to mid-career researchers.
Expert Advisory Group - biographies for Expert Advisory Group members will be added in due course
Chair
Professor Stephen Holgate CBE FMedSci, Clinical Professor of Immunopharmacology, University of Southampton
Expert Advisory Group members
- Professor Wendy Barclay FMedSci, Action Medical Research Professor of Virology & Head of Department of Infectious Disease, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London
- Dr William Bird MBE, Chief Executive Officer, Intelligent Health
- Professor Carol Brayne CBE FMedSci, Professor of Public Health Medicine, University of Cambridge
- Professor Chris Brightling FMedSci, NIHR Senior Investigator and Clinical Professor in Respiratory Medicine, University of Leicester
- Professor James Chalmers, British Lung Foundation Chair of Respiratory Research, University of Dundee
- Dr Tristan Clark, Associate Professor, Honorary Consultant in Infectious Diseases, University of Southampton
- Professor John Clarkson FREng, Director of Cambridge Engineering Design Centre, University of Cambridge
- Professor Dame Jessica Corner FMedSci, Professor of Cancer and Supportive Care; Pro-Vice-Chancellor (Research & Knowledge Exchange), University of Nottingham
- Mark Cubbon, Chief Executive, Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust
- Professor Simon de Lusignan, Professor of Primary Care and Clinical Informatics, University of Oxford
- Dr Jake Dunning MBE, Consultant in Infectious Diseases and Head of Emerging Infections and Zoonoses, National Infection Service, Public Health England
- Dr Nigel Field, Director, Centre of Molecular Epidemiology and Translational Research, Institute for Global Health, University College London
- Professor Azra Ghani FMedSci, Chair in Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London
- Professor Bryan Grenfell OBE FRS, Kathryn Briger & Sarah Fenton Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Public Affairs, Princeton University
- Professor Andrew Hayward, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Inclusion Health Research, University College London
- Dr Matthew Hort, Head of Atmospheric Dispersion and Air Quality, Met Office
- Professor Matthew Hotopf CBE FMedSci, Vice Dean of Research, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King's College London
- Professor Dame Anne Johnson DBE FMedSci, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University College London
- Professor Kamlesh Khunti FMedSci, Professor of Primary Care Diabetes & Vascular Medicine, University of Leicester
- Professor Dame Theresa Marteau DBE FMedSci, Director of Behaviour and Health Research Unit, University of Cambridge
- Professor Graham Medley, Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
- Dr Pablo Murcia, Senior Lecturer at the Centre for Virus Research, University of Glasgow
- Professor Catherine Noakes, Professor of Environmental Engineering for Buildings, University of Leeds
- Professor Peter Openshaw FMedSci, Professor of Experimental Medicine, Imperial College London
- Dr Mary Ramsay, Head of Immunisation, Public Health England
- Professor Steven Riley, Professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics, Imperial College London
- Mandy Rudczenko, Co-Chair, Patient and Carer Reference Group
- Dr Janet Scott, Clinical Lecturer in Infectious Diseases, University of Glasgow
- Sudhir Shah, Co-Chair, Patient and Carer Reference Group
- Dr Laura Shallcross, Consultant in Public Health Medicine, University College London
- Professor Aziz Sheikh OBE FRSE FMedSci, Chair of Primary Care Research and Development, University of Edinburgh
- Professor Rosalind Smyth CBE FMedSci, Director, UCL Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health
- Linda Swanson, Director of Nursing Infection Control, The Northern Care Alliance
- Professor Russell Viner, President, Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health
- Professor Lucy Yardley, Professor of Health Psychology, University of Southampton and University of Bristol
Additional expertise (early to mid-career researchers)
We are grateful to the following early to mid-career researchers, who supported the development of the report by working closely with Expert Advisory Group members and the Secretariat.
- Dr Shoba Amarnath, Newcastle University Research Fellow, Newcastle University
- Dr Heather Bailey, Lecturer in Infectious Disease Epidemiology, University College London
- Dr Gemma Clarke, Marie Curie Senior Research Fellow in Palliative Care, University of Leeds
- Dr Mariachiara Di Cesare, Senior Lecturer in Public Health, Middlesex University and Honorary Research Fellow in Population Health, Imperial College London
- Emanuele Silvio Gentile, Researcher in Atmosphere, Oceans and Climate, University of Reading
- Dr Upkar Gill, NIHR Academic Clinical Lecturer and Honorary Specialist Senior Registrar in Hepatology, Barts & The London School of Medicine & Dentistry
- Dr Sally Hargreaves, Assistant Professor in Global Health, St George’s Hospital University of London
- Dr Guy Harling, Wellcome Trust/Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Global Health, University College London
- Dr Musa Hassan, Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Edinburgh
- Dr Stephen Makin, Senior Clinical Lecturer, Centre for Rural Health, University of Aberdeen
- Dr Ruth Payne, NIHR Academic Clinical Lecturer and Honorary Specialist Registrar Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, University of Sheffield
- Dr Reecha Sofat, Clinical Pharmacologist and Senior Clinical Lecturer, University College London
- Dr Sarah Tansley, NIHR Academic Clinical Lecturer in Rheumatology, University of Bath and University of Bristol
- Dr Yihua Wang, Lecturer in Biomedical Sciences, University of Southampton
Patient and Carer Reference Group
We are grateful to the members of the Patient and Carer Reference Group for their insight into the health challenges, opportunities and priorities for this coming winter.
- Katherine Barrett
- Kimberlee Cole
- Lynn Laidlaw
- Carol Liddle
- Nira Malde-Shah
- Mandy Rudczenko, Co-Chair, Patient and Carer Reference Group (also sat on the Expert Advisory Group)
- Sudhir Shah, Co-Chair, Patient and Carer Reference Group (also sat on the Expert Advisory Group)
- Colin Wilkinson
Patient and Carer Reference Group
The deliberations of the Expert Advisory Group were informed by a Patient and Carer Reference Group, which provided guidance on priorities and concerns for winter 2020/21. The co-Chairs of this group also sat on the Expert Advisory Group. Members included:
- Katherine Barrett
- Kimberlee Cole
- Lynn Laidlaw
- Carol Liddle
- Nira Malde-Shah
- Mandy Rudczenko, Co-Chair, Patient and Carer Reference Group (also sat on the Expert Advisory Group)
- Sudhir Shah, Co-Chair, Patient and Carer Reference Group (also sat on the Expert Advisory Group)
- Colin Wilkinson
A perspective piece from the Patient and Carer Reference Group, which focuses on the need for shared decision-making ahead of this winter, is provided in Annex 1 of the ‘Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/21’ report and is available to download as a standalone document on the right hand side of this page.
Public discussion workshops
A series of public discussion workshops were also undertaken as part of this project. Ipsos MORI conducted three online workshops with members of the public, with individuals who had received shielding letters or were caring for someone who had received one, and with individuals from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups to explore patient and public views on preparing for the challenges this winter. A summary of initial findings is provided in Annex 3 of the ‘Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/21’ report. The full report of the public discussion workshops will be available shortly.
Preparing for a challenging winter 2020-21 - full report
