Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/2021

At a glance

This report from the Academy of Medical Sciences' Expert Advisory Group set out the reasonable worst-case scenario for winter 2020/21 and identified actions to help mitigate the impact of COVID-19 on the expected seasonal surge in healthcare demand. 

Published: July 2020

Summary

This report made the case for summer 2020 to be a period of intense preparation for a reasonable worst-case scenario for health in winter 2020/2021, including a resurgence of COVID-19 potentially greater than that in spring of 2020. The report warned that mitigation strategies should not further disadvantage the most vulnerable in society or the highest risk patients or communities. To maximise their effectiveness, the report emphasised that preparations for winter should involve patients, carers, public and healthcare professionals (as this report did). Enhanced coordination, collaboration and data sharing between central and local initiatives would also be vital.

The report warned that the usual winter pressures on the health and social care system could be greatly exacerbated by additional challenges in the shape of a large resurgence of COVID-19, disruption of the health and social care systems, a backlog of non-COVID-19 care following the suspension of routine clinical care, and a possible influenza epidemic.

The report highlighted the need for urgent preparation to mitigate the risks of a particularly challenging winter 2020/21. It chiefly called for action to minimise community SARS-CoV-2 and influenza transmission and impact, maximise infection control in health and social care settings, and improve public health surveillance for COVID-19.

What's happened since

The COVID-19 pandemic changed the health and social care landscape. It formed a major focus of the Academy's work from 2020 to 2022. We became the 'go-to' source of information on COVID-related matters for Government, industry and the media.

Our July 2021 report COVID-19: Preparing for the future also proved highly influential. Keir Starmer, then Leader of the Opposition, waved it in the House of Commons during Prime Minister's Questions as he challenged then Prime Minister Boris Johnson whether he had read it and was making due preparations for winter 2021/2022.

Explore related work

Work with us

We believe we achieve more when we collaborate with different sectors and communities. We invite stakeholders to work with us in our prevention programme. Your insights, expertise, and collaboration are vital in shaping our work to develop effective prevention and early detection strategies and to achieving meaningful improvements in population health. Please reach out to [email protected] to share your perspectives.

About the report

At the request of the Government Office for Science, in June 2020 we established an Expert Advisory Group chaired by Professor Stephen Holgate CBE FMedSci to provide a clear understanding of what a challenging winter 2020/21 may look like; what this would mean for deaths, NHS capacity and social care; the challenges this would present for surveillance; test, trace and isolate and non-pharmaceutical interventions; and plans being developed by policy/operational colleagues to manage this.

The Expert Advisory Group completed this rapid review, which was informed by patients and carers, and members of the public, including vulnerable people, their carers and people from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic backgrounds.

Fellows in the Expert Advisory Group

Professor Stephen Holgate CBE FMedSci (Chair)
Professor Wendy Barclay FMedSci
Professor Carol Brayne CBE FMedSci
Professor Chris Brightling FMedSci
Professor Dame Jessica Corner FMedSci
Professor Azra Ghani FMedSci
Professor Matthew Hotopf CBE FMedSci
Professor Dame Anne Johnson DBE FMedSci
Professor Kamlesh Khunti FMedSci
Professor Dame Theresa Marteau DBE FMedSci
Professor Peter Openshaw FMedSci
Professor Aziz Sheikh OBE FRSE FMedSci
Professor Rosalind Smyth CBE FMedSci

Read the report

Related content